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Aussie dollar falls on surging USD

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Local and global stocks largely finished flat for the week as markets recovered from falls earlier in the week.

In local stock news, Coles Group announced March quarter sales up 3.9% to $9.3 billion, even as flooding in NSW and QLD forced the temporary closure of 130 stores.

Mirvac shares rose after the builder said it had navigated challenges from Covid and wet weather to sell 2,332 residential lots during the March quarter, up from 2,282 in the same period a year ago.

The oil price surged again this week as Russian supply concerns rose, particularly for Europe, whilst Chinese announcements of further stimulus also provided support.

The Aussie dollar fell to a low of US70c during the week as the US dollar surged and concerns regarding Chinese economic growth put downward pressure on spot commodity prices.

Australian headline inflation rose by a huge 2.1% in the March quarter taking the annual rate to 5.1% according to data from the ABS. Significant contributors to the quarterly print included new dwellings, fuel, and tertiary education. The RBA’s preferred core or underlying measure rose 1.4% in the quarter with the annual rate rising to 3.7%, above the RBA’s target 2-3% band.

The US economy contracted at an annualised pace of 1.4% in the March quarter, well below forecasts for a 1.1% expansion, and following 6.9% growth in the December quarter of 2021. Exports dropped 5.9% while imports surged 17.7%. Private domestic investment slowed sharply whilst government spending continued to decline. On the positive side, consumer spending increased as did fixed investment (particularly non-residential).

The US central bank chair reiterated a bias for aggressive rate hikes with markets now betting on 0.5% increases in May, June, and possibly July.

The US is building more homes than it has in 16 years as supply tries to keep pace with very strong demand. Housing starts rose to an annual rate of 1.79 million in March.

French President Macron won a 2^nd term in the weekend’s election over rival Marine Le Pen with 57% of the vote. The win was by a smaller margin than the 2017 elections with Le Pen gaining ground and breaking through the 40% threshold which is rather unprecedented for French nationalist parties.

The Russian foreign minister has warned that there’s serious danger of nuclear conflict just one week after he said Moscow was committed to avoiding the use of nuclear weapons. It’s either a threat to bring about an end to the current conflict swiftly or it’s a threat to ensure no other external involvement from other countries.

Russia has cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria after both countries refused to meet Russia’s request to pay for their supplies in Rubles. European gas prices surged by as much as 20%. Not good for broader Europe, and especially for Poland and Bulgaria given their significant reliance on Russian gas. Both countries stuck in a hard place as Western sanctions won’t let them pay for the gas in Rubles.

Chinese President Xi continues to come under pressure to relax his Covid-zero policies which are bringing the economy to its knees. Xi said China would step up infrastructure construction in their latest pledge to bolster the economy.

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Mixed signals for equity investors

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Equity markets were mixed this week with US companies reporting strong results whilst the US central bank readied the market for a large rate rise next month.

So far, about 80% of the largest 500 US companies that have posted earnings results for the March quarter have beaten analyst expectations.

In local stock news, Bank of Queensland’s share price fell as the company reported a decrease in its net interest margin amid ongoing competitive pressures and higher fixed rate lending volumes.

Telecoms firm Uniti Group has agreed to a $3.62 billion takeover offer from a consortium of Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management and fund manager Morrison & Co.

Shares in Ramsay Health Care rose more than 20% after it revealed a $20 billion, $88 per share, bid by a consortium led by private equity giant KKR. The offer represents a premium of more than 36% from Ramsay’s close the day before the announcement. Super fund Hesta are part of the consortium.

Rio Tinto’s quarterly iron ore exports dropped 8% compared with the same period last year. BHP shares fell after the miner said its operations were hampered by labour shortages (covid policy related) along with bouts of bad weather. Production at its flagship Pilbara ore operations slipped in the March quarter.

AGL Energy revealed its Loy Yang coal-fired power station had suffered an electrical fault, wiping 25% of its generation capacity potentially until August.

Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4% but contrasting surveys/data paint a slightly different picture. Roy Morgan findings show that 2.3 million Australians (16.2% of the workforce) remain either unemployed or under-employed. However, ABS estimates show that number is closer 1.5 million people.

Annual growth in new Australian housing lending continued to slow in March. Renovation activity remained very strong, with lending at record high levels. There was a solid lift in consumer lending due to holiday financing.

The US central bank chairman signalled that they were likely to raise interest rates by 0.50% at its meeting next month.

The World Bank hasn’t ruled out further downgrades to their global economic growth outlook. The institution previously lowered its estimate for global growth in 2022 to 3.2% from 4.1% in January.

The IMF has also slashed its global growth forecast to 3.6% in 2022, down from a forecast of 4.4% in January.

The European central bank retained their interest rate at emergency settings but judged that incoming data since its last meeting has reinforced the expectation that money printing under its asset purchase program should be concluded in the 3^rd quarter.

China announced that authorities would cut banks’ reserve requirements soon to support the lockdown battered economy. This would allow (or encourage) the banks to lend more freely.

A snap poll showed Australian opposition leader Anthony Albanese had the edge in the first debate of a tightly fought election campaign against PM Scott Morrison. This pushed betting odds, historical a pretty good indicator, back in favour of the Labor leader following a period of odds significantly shortening for the current PM.

Some of Germany’s industrial giants have warned that imposing an embargo on Russian gas to punish Moscow would cause the national economy irreversible damage. The EU has warned member states that meeting Russia’s demand to pay for Russian gas in Rubles would violate sanctions. In contrast, India is becoming a large buyer of oil from Russia and in some cases selling refined fuel on to Europe. When there’s a will there’s a way.

Chinese President Xi sees no alternative to a Covid-zero approach despite simmering anger in the locked-down financial hub of Shanghai and mounting costs. Xi is seeking a third 5-year term during a congress later this year.

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US releases more oil

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MARKETS
The local equity market finished higher for the week whilst global markets were mixed
with emerging market equities receiving a boost.

Parts of the US government bond yield curve are inverting, ie. where short term bond
yields are higher than long term bond yields, usually a key indicator of an economic
downturn or recession. Shorter term bond yields are trying to reflect inflationary concerns
whilst longer term bond yields are reflecting that the economy isn’t robust enough for the
central bank to fight inflation with significant rate rises.

In local stock news, the Star Entertainment CEO has resigned following revelations of
failings to prevent criminals exploiting its casinos.

CIMIC has recommended shareholders accept a takeover offer as its largest shareholder
Hochtief has gained 85% of the company through an off-market bid for $22 per share.
Private equity group Blackstone received approval from the Foreign Investment Review
Board to buy casino operator Crown. Blackstone still needs to clear other hurdles in order
to complete their $8.9 billion offer.

Telstra’s current CFO Vicki Brady was named the incoming CEO after current CEO Andy
Penn said he will be retiring in September. Brady says the carrier can be a growth company
again.

Air New Zealand shares resumed trading after revealing a more than $2 billion
recapitalisation plan to save the company. The package includes selling a large amount of
new shares to investors and the government and a loan from the government.

US crude oil supplies dropped again last week putting additional upward pressure on the
oil price thus forcing the US President Biden to release more oil from their strategic
reserves, whilst the OPEC+ oil producing nations stuck to its existing deal raising the
production target by 432,000 barrels per day. The oil price finished the week lower.

ECONOMICS
The Federal Government handed down their budget with little surprises with measures
unlikely to significantly alter the economic trajectory or have any significant investment
market impacts. The key initiative announced was a “cost of living” support package to help
offset the costs of rising fuel prices and broader inflationary pressures.

The Government expects 3.5% economic growth this year before settling back to 2.5%
next year. They expect headline inflation of 4.25% this year before settling back down at 3%
and 2.75% in the years to follow. Unemployment is forecast at 3.75% and is expected to
remain low.

Australian retail trade rose by 1.8% in February and is now 9.1% stronger over the year.
Strong spending on cafes, restaurants & takeaway, clothing & footwear, as well as
department stores drove the result. NSW and SA saw the strongest growth in the month.
Australian job vacancies rose by 6.9% over the 3 months to February to be 200,000 higher
than pre-pandemic levels. Job vacancies now total 423,500, a record high, in contrast to the
563,300 people unemployed.

Building approvals rebounded by a strong 43.5% in February after a virus wave impacted
the January figure. The rebound was broad across both houses and apartments with gains
made across most of the country.

Total private sector credit rose by 0.6% in February, the same pace as January but lower
than the gains in November and December. Housing credit growth slowed, whilst personal
and business credit growth jumped compared to January.

US consumer confidence for March was below economist expectations according to a key
survey. The reading has been slipping in recent months as consumers have become more
pessimistic on the economic outlook.

The US Labor Department reported 11.3 million job openings in February, down slightly
from January and December’s record. Other data showed that the private sector added
450,000 jobs in March, slightly ahead of economist forecasts.

The Japanese central bank is conducting additional government bond buying to put
downward pressure on yields as 10-year bond yields rose to their highest level since
January 2016.

POLITICS
Shanghai has locked down half of the city in turns in order to prevent their most recent
virus outbreak from getting out of control. Residents barred from leaving their homes,
public transport suspended, and private cars will not be allowed on roads unless necessary.
This will have a large impact on already weak economic growth.

China’s regulatory crackdowns last year reduce the private sector’s share of the country’s
big businesses for the first time in 7 years. The government’s tough regulations fuelled a
market selloff that erased some US$1.5 trillion from Chinese stocks at the peak.

The Biden administration has commenced their plan to release roughly 1 million barrels of
oil a day from US strategic reserves for up to 6 months to combat rising petrol prices and
supply shortages. The plan will assist but releasing strategic reserves should always be
considered a very last resort. The plan will see almost one-third of their reserves drawn
down.

Germany, which relies on Russia for more than 50% of its natural gas, has triggered the
first stage of an emergency plan to brace for a potential cut-off. The third stage would
mean gas rationing.

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Aussie dollar pushes higher on risk-on sentiment

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Local and global equity markets rose this week as equity investors ignored the threat of higher interest rates and instead focused on US central bank comments regarding the strength of the economy.
In local stock news, casino operator Star has been embroiled in scandal after revelations that the business disguised $900 million in transactions as hotel expenses to help guests dodge controls over using the money for gambling, putting their casino licence at risk.
Ramsay Health Care has received an offer from its Asian joint venture partner to buy the remainder of the shares, offering $1.82 billion.
Respiratory care provider Fisher & Paykel forecast full year revenue to be less than the previous one. The company said the omicron variant was requiring less respiratory intervention and a mild flu season had unfolded in the northern hemisphere.
National Australia Bank will follow its $2.5 billion on-market buyback with another of the same value as the bank seeks to improve its capital ratio and reduce shares.
JB Hi-Fi reported that 3rd quarter sales were well ahead of the same period last year, with sales up 11% in their JB Hi-Fi Australian division and up 5% in The Good Guys business.
The oil price rose again this week as US stockpiles dropped sharply last week and supply shortages continue given sanctions on Russia.
The Aussie dollar rose past the US75c mark this week, supported by high commodity prices and a positive change investor risk appetite which generally supports the Aussie. Less support for the Euro and the Yen is also resulting in additional support for the Aussie dollar.

CBA data is showing that growth in new lending for housing continues to ease, primarily driven by lending to owner occupiers. Higher fixed rates have seen a declining share of new fixed rates lending and shorter fixed rate terms. Consumer lending growth picked up, but business lending growth has slowed.
Data showed Australian manufacturing conditions strengthening in March, marking the 22nd successive month of improvement. New orders growth accelerated with employment levels and purchasing activity continuing to rise. However, input costs and output prices rose at faster rates due to shortages and rising costs.
The US central bank chair said the bank must move quickly to bring too high inflation under control and if needed will use bigger than usual interest rate hikes to do so. Talk and action are two different things but talking can bring about less action if they are successful at talking down demand.
A key US economic leading index rose by 0.3% in February, in line with expectations, but the print does not reflect the full impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict which escalated thereafter.
US existing home sales fell 7.2% in February while February sales fell 2.4% from a year earlier. Higher mortgage rates hitting home, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage recently topping 4% for the first time since 2019.
The Bank of England hiked rates for a 3rd successive meeting with officials sounding less confident on the path for rates ahead. The Bank of Japan doubled down on its commitment to keep stimulating the economy even if inflation continues to accelerate.

The lack of progress in talks to amend the Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland has frustrated the UK which now appears to be stepping up preparations to suspend parts of the deal it struck with the European Union.
European Union leaders may hold off on endorsing intervention in the bloc’s wholesale energy market as member states are divided on the most effective emergency options to curb soaring power and gas prices. All options are on the table, but most aren’t easy or immediate solutions.
The Biden administration and European Union are close to a deal aimed at slashing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy sources, as the US and its allies seek to further isolate and punish Moscow. The deal would ensure supplies of American natural gas and hydrogen for Europe.
Australia, the world’s biggest export of alumina, announced a ban on shipments to Russia in a move that will add further pressure on Russia with Australia accounting for nearly 20% of Russia’s supply of alumina, a key ingredient for producing aluminium.
On the trade front, the Biden administration plans to reinstate exemptions from the Trump-era tariffs on 352 Chinese products that were previously granted waivers, most of which expired by the end of 2020. Elsewhere, the US and UK reached a deal to ease tariffs on British steel and aluminium, resolving a longstanding dispute.

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Investor confusion reigns

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MARKETS

Local and global equity markets were mixed this week with investors pummelled by an influx of extremely fluid news flow including conflict, inflation, central banks and rates, and floods.

In local stock news, CSL announced it would waive its original 80% acceptance rate condition and declare its $16 billion takeover of Vifor Pharma a success, after gaining more than 74% in the takeover target. Swiss government approval is still required.

Insurers have been informing the market of their claims from the floods and storms that battered parts of the NSW and Queensland since late February. IAG has revised its total claims expense estimate for the event to $74 million, down from $95 million, due to work on earlier claims.

Oil prices had an extremely volatile week, soaring to $130 a barrel amid supply shortage fears as the US and allies looked to cut off Russian oil and gas. The oil price then fell sharply on peace hopes, before rising again with the UAE stating it will call on its fellow OPEC+ members to boost oil output faster. But the oil price finished the week lower as the UAE call was tempered hours later by their energy minister and high US inflation data set off fears of economic contraction.

ECONOMIC

New Australian labour market data showed demand for workers spiked after the most recent virus wave receded, with the ANZ job advertisement series jumping 8.4% in February to be 31.5% higher than a year earlier.

Australian consumer sentiment fell again in March, with the reading below 100, indicating that pessimists outweigh optimists. Rising inflationary pressures are weighing on sentiment, along with recent floods, Russia/Ukraine conflict, and the prospect of higher mortgage rates.

The February NAB business survey showed a strengthening in business conditions and confidence as new virus cases declined from their early January peaks.

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said surging oil prices would produce annual inflation of 4% in Australia this year, above the Bank’s 2-3% target.

The US central bank chairman has confirmed plans to back a 0.25% rate increase at the March meeting, with the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacting how hard they can go on rate rises in contrast to unrelenting inflationary pressures. The chairman did indicate that he was prepared to raise rates by more than 0.25% in a meeting or meetings if inflation doesn’t subside later this year as expected.

US jobs rose by 678,000 in February, coming in well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.8%, the lowest in 2 years. Average hourly earnings were flat in the month with the annual rate falling from 5.5% to 5.1%.

US inflation reached a new 4-decade high in February, with the consumer price index up 7.9% from a year earlier. Markets concerned that sustained inflation and lower economic growth could see a period of stagflation.

The European central bank kept their interest rates unchanged but surprisingly sped up their reduced asset purchasing schedule for the coming months, stating that the program could end in the 3rd quarter if the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken.

China announced an economic growth goal of about 5.5% for 2022, it’s lowest target since 1990, but still at the higher end of many economists’ estimates. The higher than expected number, if achieved, could provide a boost to the global economy.

POLITICS

Sanctions and corporate boycotts on Russia have continued this week as part of a broader retreat by global corporate giants. In response, Russia has threatened to cut natural gas supplies to Europe. The US secretary of state said the US and its allies were looking at a coordinated embargo on Russian oil and gas, whilst ensuring appropriate global supply. Problem is where to get the additional supply from…. Venezuela or Iran….

China will continue its crackdown on monopolies to ensure fair competition according to their Premier. He also singled out integrated circuits and A.I. industries as priority areas for the government to build up domestic capabilities. President Xi said China could not rely on international markets for food security and should focus on domestic production and farmland protection.

The US House passed a long-delayed US $1.5 trillion spending bill that would fund the government through the rest of the fiscal year, with emergency coronavirus funding stricken from the bill. The bill also approved US$13.6 billion in emergency spending for the US response to the war in Ukraine.

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Oil price surges as Ukraine conflict continues

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MARKETS

Local and global equity markets were mixed this week with investor sentiment stuck between valuation support (positive), inflation (negative), and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine (negative).

In local stock news, Australian insurers declared an insurance catastrophe as the number of claims for flood assistance on the east coast soared, with Suncorp already flagging $75 million of additional costs.

Oil prices surged due to the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict whilst reports US crude stockpiles fell more than expected didn’t help, putting more pressure on countries to release oil from their emergency stockpiles.

Both the Aussie dollar and the US dollar rose this week as currency investors sought out safety away from Europe whilst the US central bank chair also suggested a first rate hike was imminent.

ECONOMIC

The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged as expected at their March meeting with their statement emphasising patience before their first rate hike and a focus on prevailing inflation data over the next two quarters along with labour market conditions, particularly wages. Australian economic growth bounced by 3.4% in the 4th quarter to be up by 4.2% on a year ago levels, with household consumption surging and inventories adding to growth. Dwelling investment, business investment, public demand, and net exports were all modest drags on growth. The household savings rate fell, but the level of savings remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. A range of business indicators showed support for Australia’s economic growth outlook with inventories up in Q4, company profits rose 2.7% after adjusting for inventories, wages and salaries up 1.9%, retail trade up 1.8% in January, and private sector credit growth up 0.6% in January. Australian dwelling prices rose by 0.3% across the 8 capital cities in February with annual growth now sitting at 19.2%. Prices were mixed across the country, with Sydney and Melbourne flat whilst gains were recorded in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. New lending for Australian housing rose by 2.6% in January, driven by a strong increase in lending to investors which was up a very strong 6.1%. Lending to first home buyers continued to fall. Personal lending also rose by a small 0.2% after falling by 3.6% in December. The Australian trade surplus widened in January driven by a sharp lift in exports, which rose 7.6%. Iron ore and coal exports provided the boost up by 15% and 16.7% respectively. Rural goods exports also remained strong. Goods imports fell by 2.5%, but still sit materially higher over the year. Australian building approvals fell sharply in January with a 27.9% record drop, coming in well below the modest fall expected by the market. It was a weak set of numbers across the board. US central bank officials appear to be sticking to their resolve to raise interest rates at this month’s meeting despite the uncertainty posed by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Tough situation as speculation has continued to increase regarding a delay to their first rate rise. Fed chairman Powell, appearing before a government committee, said he would propose a 0.25% increase at their next meeting. French inflation accelerated more than expected, whilst the prices of basic goods in the UK are rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade, adding further pressure on the European central bank who would prefer to withdraw stimulus at a very slow and measured pace. The Chinese central bank moved to further support liquidity by injecting US$45.8 million into the financial system, the most since September 2020. China’s Politburo, of less relevance post Xi’s ascension to almost dictatorship, has vowed to strengthen macroeconomic policies to stabilise the economy this year, suggesting more support could be offered. China’s official manufacturing and non-manufacturing data for February outperformed expectations, alleviating fears of a China slowdown.

POLITICAL

Western nations proceeded with sanctions against Russia to limit their ability to do business by freezing bank assets and cutting off state owned enterprises, whilst also agreeing to disconnect some Russian banks from the SWIFT international banking system and limiting the ability of Russia’s central bank to support their currency. Putin responded by ordering Russia’s nuclear-deterrence forces to be put on alert. Interestingly, Russia’s oil and gas reserves have yet to be targeted and there’s still significant exemptions to many of the sanction lists. Also interesting has been Russia’s invasion/occupation strategy. Russia has barred airlines from 36 countries from its airspace and banned its residents from transferring currency abroad, whilst Turkey has closed the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to warships, only allowing ships to return to their bases. US President Biden has approved the release of an additional US$350 million worth of weapons from US stocks to Ukraine, which is their 3rd release in 6 months, amounting to more than US$1 billion in security assistance. Other nations have followed suit. US President Biden pledged action on inflation in his State of the Union speech but didn’t offer any realistic ways of reducing inflation which recently hit a 40-year high. He told businesses not to cut wages but to cut other costs….

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RUSSIA INVADES, SANCTIONS TO FOLLOW

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MARKETS

Local and global equity markets weakened this week as escalating European tensions saw Russian troops enter Ukraine.

In local stock news, Magellan reported a net profit after tax of $251.6 million for the 1st half, an increase of 24% on the prior period, whilst the company declared an interim dividend of $1.10 per share, up from 97c. The fund manager is considering an on-market share buy-back.

AGL Energy has rejected a surprise $3.54 billion takeover approach from billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes (Atlassian) and Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management in favour of a plan to split in two this year. A tech guy running an energy company……what could go wrong……

QBE Insurance reported a net profit of US$750 million for calendar 2021, compared with a US$1.5 billion loss in the previous year. Investors were unconvinced by the result.

Super Retail Group had first-half profit fall 35% and warned higher freight and transport costs will continue to affect margins, with lockdowns and higher costs contributing to the weaker result.

Telstra and TPG will share their regional networks in what they claim will provide better service to people outside of major cities. The two companies revealed a 10 year network deal which will improve coverage without the need for costly network rollouts.

Coles reported a better than expected performance for the 1st half of its financial year but rising costs from covid wiped gains from improved sales. Woolworths reported lower 1st half profit due to virus-related costs with the company warning that it’s inevitable food prices will rise.

Seven Group improved 1st half earnings and is banking on its large stake in Boral to deliver better full year numbers. The company posted a 21% increase in net profit, which doesn’t include the 69% stake acquired in Boral.

Rio Tinto reported an improved full year profit of US$21.09 billion and announced a special dividend of US62 cents per share, which will be paid in addition to the final dividend of US$4.17 per share.

Scentre Group returned to full year profit benefiting from an uptick in property valuations. Net profit after tax was $887.9 million, with revaluation gains of $81 million. Investors will receive a higher distribution.

Oil prices surged above US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 following Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine before settling back down to trading levels earlier in the week on news that the US is considering a potential release from its strategic oil reserves in coordination with allies.

The Australian dollar fell this week as is normally the case when global risks rise, investors seeking out safety in the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and US dollar.

ECONOMIC

CBA lending data for January showed that growth in new lending for housing eased, primarily driven by owner-occupiers, whilst higher fixed borrowing rates saw a decline in the share of fixed rate lending. Consumer lending growth softened whilst business lending growth remains solid.

A key Australian consumer confidence index fell 1.4% despite the easing of virus restrictions and re-opening of international borders, with concerns regarding inflation hitting home for consumers. The drop in confidence means household spending might be weaker in the period ahead.

Australian construction data showed that building work done fell by 1.7% in the 4th quarter because of a 3.7% fall in private sector residential work. Work completed on renovations also eased in the quarter but remains at a high level. Engineering work completed lifted driven by stronger public sector activity.

Australian wages rose by 0.7% in the 4th quarter, with the annual rate stepping up to 2.3%. Both private and public sector wages grew at the same pace in the quarter. Including bonuses, the annual rate lifted to 2.8%, but remains below headline inflation numbers. The labour market has tightened again over the last few months.

The volume of capital expenditure in Australia rose by 1.1% in the 4th quarter, with mining investment increasing by 2.6% and non-mining investment increasing by 0.5%.

A private US data firm said its manufacturing data rose to a 2-month high in February, suggesting the US economy regained momentum.

Prices charged for goods and services in the Euro area jumped by a record amount in February as an easing of pandemic restrictions led to a strong rebound in economic activity.

China’s central bank has kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged in February, in line with market expectations, after cutting rates a month earlier.

Hong Kong will boost support for consumers and the unemployed by allocating more than US$6 billion as a covid outbreak dents the economy. The government has banned travel from several countries, closed schools, and imposed a range of other restrictions.

POLTICS

Russia invaded Ukraine after 2 regions close to the Ukraine/Russia border declared themselves autonomous or independent, thus seeking support from Russia whist on Ukrainian land. Not a smart move from the Russians as sanctions could become crippling, but equally damaging for the West in terms of embarrassment and the sanctions that will now follow which will add further pressure to current high oil and gas prices and broader inflation. Sanctions could also force the US to reluctantly enter into a nuclear deal with Iran to ease oil supply concerns. China said it opposes the sanctions and called US actions “immoral”.

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US inflation highest in 40 years

MARKETS

Equity investors outside of the US seemed to take the highest US inflation in 40 years in their stride, helped by strong returns earlier in the week.

A generally positive US earnings season has helped support stocks. With results in from about 60% of the largest 500 companies, analysts expect profits rose 30% in the 4th quarter from a year earlier. This is up from estimates for 21% growth at the end of September.

In local stock news, Magellan Financial Group shares fell again as Hamish Douglass announced he would step down as chairman and take a medical leave of absence. He will be replaced by REA Group chairman Hamish McLennan whilst investment management duties will fall to Chris Mackay and Nikki Thomas, who have re-joined, and other senior portfolio managers within the business.

Macquarie reported a record 3rd quarter, helped by its markets-facing businesses, with Macquarie Capital earnings helping offset a decline in the annuities divisions such as banking and financial services.

Suncorp posted a near 21% fall in 1st half net profit after more insurance claims from natural disasters. But the company said its underlying business is strong, putting it in a good position in the 2nd half of this financial year.

Commonwealth Bank has reported a 30% growth in cash profits for the 1st half of the financial year increasing their interim dividend by 17%. The bank reported a 12.2% increase in household deposits and an 8.5% jump in home lending. Capital position remained strong. The company plans to buy-back up to $2 billion of its shares on-market, following the $6 billion off-market buy-back in the 1st half.

Computershare upgraded its full-year earnings forecast after 1st half figures beat expectations, with higher sales and profits from its register maintenance business.

As the oil price remains high, the number of US oil rigs rose very modestly to 497, its highest since April 2020. Even though the rig count has climbed for a record 17 months in a row, the weekly increases have been very modest, and production remains far from pre-pandemic highs.

ECONOMIC

Australian consumer sentiment fell again in February, only just remaining in positive territory. Rising inflationary pressures and increasing expectations of higher mortgage rates are negatively impacting sentiment. Changes in business conditions and confidence were mixed in January.

The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated to 7.5% in January, the highest since February 1982, and above market forecasts of 7.3%, as soring emerging costs, labour shortages, and supply disruptions couple with strong demand weighed. Excluding volatile energy and food categories, inflation rose 6%, the most since August 1982.

Private businesses in the US unexpectedly cut 301,000 workers in January, the first job loss since December of 2020 and the biggest since April 2020. Investors were expecting a job gain of 207,000.

The US economy unexpectedly added 476,000 payrolls in January, much better than market forecasts of 150,000, and in stark contrast to the job losses reported in the private sector ADP.

Two key US labour market metrics may take multiple years to recover to their pre-pandemic growth trend, with the labour-force participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio languishing due to high level of retirements and others leaving the workforce altogether.

A noted European central bank hawk said he expects an interest rate increase as early as in the 4th quarter of this year, as he expects Euro-area inflation to stay above 4% for much of 2022. A noted US central bank hawk tried to one-up his Euro-counterpart, suggesting a US cash rate of 1% by July.

POLITICAL

The Australian federal government announced a relaxing of border rules which will see us welcome visa holders into the country from February 21. Tourism operators are still haemorrhaging some $4 billion a month compared to pre-pandemic levels. The federal government has maintained they will not seek to boost immigration rates to “make up” for the last 2 years. Smart move leading into an election, but a poor move from an economic perspective.

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated that its time to close the federal money tap and hand responsibility for the economy back to industry.

Russia reached new long-term supply deals with China as the Kremlin aims to strengthen ties with the Asian nation at a time of souring relations with the West.

US president Biden said the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany would be stopped if President Putin orders an invasion of Ukraine. An invasion is highly unlikely.

Europe and the US are accelerating steps to roll back virus restrictions as politicians across both regions are deeming many public-health measures increasingly unnecessary as they come under pressure from a pandemic-weary public.

The US is apparently losing patience with China after the nation failed to meet its purchase commitments under the trade agreement reached during the Trump administration. China had pledged to buy an extra US$200 billion in US agriculture, energy, and manufactured products in the 2 years through the end of 2021. The Biden administration is under increasing pressure to show it’s willing to punish China for not holding up its end of the deal.

33 Chinese entities including electronics, optics, and healthcare/biotech companies, were added to a US “unverified list” that subjects them to tighter export controls.

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Equity markets mixed as relief rally soured by US tech sell-off

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MARKETS

Equity markets were mixed this week as a strong rally earlier in the week was soured by US tech sell-off and more hawkish comments and action from both the European central bank and the Bank of England.

Reported 4th quarter US corporate earnings have continued to come through stronger than expected, with 78% of companies beating analyst estimates and more than 80% having met or beat expectations. Analysts are expecting that profits from companies in the S&P 500 rose 24% in the quarter from a year earlier.

Money markets are now expecting almost 5 interest rate increases from US Fed this year and 4 from the Bank of England. There’s also speculation that the US Fed might front-load hikes by increasing rates in larger increments, which Fed officials have poured cold water on. All will largely depend on inflation dynamics from here but will also be a function of what interest rate level the economy and markets can absorb and withstand.

In local stock news, Telstra has announced it will spend up to $1.6 billion on two projects over the next 5 years. The spending is projected to provide a $200 million earnings contribution by 2026.

Westpac has reported a net profit of $1.82 billion in the December quarter, up 80% on the quarterly average for the 2nd half of 2021. Cash earnings were up 1%, but the net interest margin declined 8 basis points to 1.91%. Total loans increased 0.7%.

Sydney Airport shareholders have voted for a $23.6 billion takeover bid from a consortium of investors, with shareholders to receive $8.75 per share.

Oil prices moved higher this week after OPEC+ stuck to planned moderate output increases (400,000 barrels per day) despite pressure from customers and consumers to raise output more quickly. The group has blamed rising prices on the failure of consuming nations to ensure adequate investment in fossil fuels, whilst Russia/US tensions also haven’t helped.

The Aussie dollar rose as the US dollar took a tumble after both the European and England central banks turned more hawkish in their rhetoric and actions.

ECONOMIC

The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 0.10% but announced an early finish to their quantitative easing (money printing) program, giving the bank the green light to begin raising rates. The bank made it abundantly clear in their statement that they’re in no rush to raise rates, but markets are currently predicting a rate lift-off in either June or August. Inflation, particularly wage growth, will be key.

Australian private sector credit rose by 0.8% in December to take the annual rate to 7.2%, the strongest rate since November 2008. Both housing and business credit were strong, whilst personal credit fell in December and remains well below levels a year ago.

Australian retail trade fell by 4.4% in December affected by virus issues, falling more than consensus estimates, but remains at near record levels. Food retailing was the only positive, with large falls coming from department stores, clothing & footwear, and household goods.

Australia’s trade surplus narrowed in December as imports rose strongly in the month relative to exports. Exports were mixed, with iron ore rising strongly and reasonable growth from wool and meat, whilst coal fell sharply as did other rural exports. Imports were boosted by strong gains across all the goods categories.

Australian building approvals rose strongly in December, boosted by a surprising lift in multi-unit approvals. In contrast, private detached house approvals fell as momentum continues to slow. Over the past year, the number of approvals is lower by 7.5%, however, alterations & additions approvals remain elevated.

US data showed that the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation rose at 4.9% in December over the prior year, pushing well above the bank’s target.

A separate measure showed US employers spent 4% more on wages and benefits over the past year, an increase not seen since 2001, as a tight labour market encouraged workers to demand higher pay. However, employment costs didn’t rise as much as expected in the 4th quarter easing concerns that wages are advancing too quickly.

US consumer spending fell in December as rising prices and virus fears took their toll.

US manufacturing activity slowed in January, from December, but remained in expansionary territory. Supply chain impediments caused by virus health policies were among the issues that weighed on activity.

The Bank of England voted by a majority 5-4 to increase the cash rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. Members also voted unanimously for the bank to begin to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases by ceasing to reinvest maturing assets – i.e., reduce the size of their balance sheet by taking the liquidity away they previously provided via money printing. They will also begin to unwind the stock of corporate bond purchases.

The European central bank maintained key interest rates at record low levels in February and pledged to steadily reduce its bond purchases (money printing) this year. Rate rises are unlikely in 2022.

China’s economy continued to slow at the start of the year with manufacturing output slipping and Covid-zero policies curbing consumer spending.

POLICTICS

Russia/US tensions continued to rise this week with Russia maintaining they have no plans to invade and Ukraine trying to calm tensions on all sides. US lawmakers are apparently close to finalising the language for a sanctions bill that could include some penalties even if Putin doesn’t invade. The US has also given the green light to move troops from the US to Europe and to move troops within Europe closer to the Russia/Ukraine border.

Some 300,000 Australian fossil fuel jobs could be wiped out through declining international demand for fossil fuels, new modelling predicts. There’s a widely held belief that those job losses will be easily absorbed, but that doesn’t appear to be apparent with renewable sources of energy largely developed using automation. The job losses will disproportionately impact regional centres. Job transitions and retraining are never easy.

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Markets buoyed by US stimulus bills

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Local and global equity markets rose strongly this week buoyed by strong company earnings results, the passage of the US infrastructure bill, and progress on the bigger budgetary bill.

Analysts now expect 2^nd quarter profit growth of 93% for the 500 largest US companies. With their quarterly reporting season almost complete, 87% of companies have beat analyst expectations, which is the highest beat on record.

In local stock news, general insurer Suncorp improved full-year cash earnings by 42% with shareholders to receive a special dividend, whilst the company will also undertake an on-market stock buyback.

Toll road operator Transurban revealed that the costs of the West Gate tunnel project in Melbourne have blown out by about $3.3 billion. The company reported statutory profit of $3.27 billion. Lockdowns in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne have reduced the number of cars on the road and have weighed on revenue.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia released its 2021 financial year results reporting a $1.4 billion increase in cash profit to $8.7 billion over the last 12 months, an almost 20% increase. The bank also announced a $6 billion off-market stock buy-back.

The gold price had fallen sharply over the last week and half before mounting somewhat of a recovery in the last few days. A stronger US dollar along with the continuing economic recovery and expectations of the US central bank paring back its stimulus program have all put downward pressure on the gold price of late.

The iron price has continued to fall from its lofty heights following a report which said that China wants to limit steel makers’ impact on its environment, which made investors reassess their expectations for iron ore demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has revised its economic growth forecast down to 4% for 2021 but has kept their forecast for unemployment at 5% for the same period. They did revise their unemployment forecast for 2022 down to 4.25% and left their inflation forecasts unchanged at 1.75% for 2022 and 2.25% for 2023.

The negative impact of lockdowns have begun to rear their ugly head, putting aside the societal issues, as more than 15,000 home and business owners were unable to repay their loans in July. In addition, an additional 150,000 Australians became unemployed last month according to Roy Morgan. Their latest data showed the bulk of the job losses came from part-time work whilst 61,000 full-time workers also became unemployed. 619,000 workers are now looking for full-time work whilst 803,000 are looking for part-time work.

July saw the National Australia Bank business confidence index and business conditions fall sharply, which isn’t surprising given the size and extent of lockdowns in a number of states. Australian consumer sentiment fell by more than 4% in August as consumers’ fears of unemployment rose sharply.

US consumer prices for July rose at its slowest pace in the past 5 months as some price increases have subsided on the back of softening demand and increased supply. Even so, the July inflation number of 0.5% is still quite high, with the annual rate at 5.4%, as demand pressures and supply issues remain.

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 jobs last month a Labor Department report showed. Economists had forecast payrolls would increase by 870,000. The report also showed strong wage gains as employers competed for scarce workers as many workers remain at home collecting overly generous unemployment benefits. The unemployment rate also dropped to a 16 month low.

The US central bank had contrasting rhetoric from a couple of members this week with one suggesting that the US should be well past the pandemic crisis before the central bank raises rates. Another member said high inflation this year may have already met one of the bank’s benchmarks for raising rates.

The Germans have again warned that inflation in the Euro area could pick up faster than expected and urged the European central bank not to drag out their emergency bond-buying program.

A gauge of investor expectations for the German economy plunged to 40 from 63 points in July as fears about the impact of the delta variant gather pace.

Chinese economic data showed exports rising by 19% in July on the same time last year, coming in just under expectations, whilst imports were up 28% on the same time last year, also coming in below expectations.

China’s central bank has fanned expectations of further monetary policy easing, saying in its latest quarterly report that inflation pressures are controllable whilst highlighting risks to the economic growth outlook.

The US Senate voted to progress the US$1 trillion infrastructure bill with 19 Republicans voting with Democrats to support the push. However, the Democrat leader of the House has said she will only bring the bill to a vote after the Senate passes a separate US$3.5 trillion bill which has all kinds of things in it, most of it Democrat election promises, which the Democrats will likely look to push through via a process called reconciliation (ie. without Republican support). The debt ceiling (currently at US$28.5 trillion….) with partisanship likely to make it a tough task.

The Biden administration faced some hard truths this week as it pertains to foreign policy. A return to the Iran nuclear deal looks to be dead in the water as Iran races towards the capacity to build a nuclear bomb in light of perceived US weakness. The US will now be sending troops back into Afghanistan following an ill-advised move earlier in the year to remove US troops from the country. The country has again become a hotbed for terrorism with the Taliban carry out deadly attacks against US allies left behind. Lastly, US energy self-sufficiency is very much a thing of the past after US oil inventories got so low that President Biden had to ask OPEC+ to increase supply. US inventories are low due to increase in demand, but mainly due to government policy banning new investment in oil & gas and pipelines.

Need advice? Contact Macarthur Wealth Management for expert financial advice in Parramatta and Sydney wide on (02) 9683 2869. www.macarthurwealth.com.au

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Aussie dollar falls on surging USD

Mixed signals for equity investors

US releases more oil

Aussie dollar pushes higher on risk-on sentiment

Investor confusion reigns

Oil price surges as Ukraine conflict continues

RUSSIA INVADES, SANCTIONS TO FOLLOW

US inflation highest in 40 years

Equity markets mixed as relief rally soured by US tech sell-off

Markets buoyed by US stimulus bills

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